Average WAR for 2016 Hall of Fame Candidates

December 17, 2015 by TheUmpire

brad_ausmus

Ken Griffey leads the pack of first-year candidates.

Brad Ausmus looks to be this year’s Lenny Harris.

We have converted a baseball player’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) into a rate statistic which indicates the average number of wins above replacement a player would give his team per single season (avgWAR). Baseball-Reference.com uses the following scale for WAR values:

  • 8+ MVP Quality
  • 5+ All-Star Quality
  • 2+ Starter
  • 0-2 Reserve
  • <0 Replacement Level

It is our proposal that players having an avgWAR of 5.0 or higher are worthy of induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Player avgWAR
Barry Bonds 8.81
Roger Clemens 6.74
Jeff Bagwell 6.00
Larry Walker 5.92
Curt Schilling 5.41
Edgar Martinez 5.38
Mark McGwire 5.36
Mike Mussina 5.26
Ken Griffey 5.07
Mike Piazza 5.03
Nomar Garciaparra 4.99
Alan Trammell 4.97
Jim Edmonds 4.86
Tim Raines 4.47
Sammy Sosa 4.02
Troy Glaus 3.99
Jeff Kent 3.89
Gary Sheffield 3.79
Fred McGriff 3.45
Jason Kendall 3.22
Mike Sweeney 2.75
Luis Castillo 2.72
Randy Winn 2.59
David Eckstein 2.57
Mike Hampton 2.55
Mike Lowell 2.51
Mark Grudzielanek 2.36
Billy Wagner 2.24
Lee Smith 1.96
Trevor Hoffman 1.87
Garret Anderson 1.86
Brad Ausmus 1.35

Stats from Lahman’s Baseball Database and Baseball-Reference.com.

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Average WAR for 2015 Hall of Fame Candidates

December 31, 2014 by TheUmpire

Eddie Guardado

Pedro Martinez leads the pack of first-year candidates.

Eddie Guardado looks to be this year’s Lenny Harris.

We have converted a baseball player’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) into a rate statistic which indicates the average number of wins above replacement a player would give his team per single season (avgWAR). Baseball-Reference.com uses the following scale for WAR values:

  • 8+ MVP Quality
  • 5+ All-Star Quality
  • 2+ Starter
  • 0-2 Reserve
  • <0 Replacement Level

It is our proposal that players having an avgWAR of 5.0 or higher are worthy of induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Player avgWAR
Barry Bonds 8.81
Roger Clemens 6.74
Pedro Martinez 6.45
Jeff Bagwell 6.00
Larry Walker 5.92
Randy Johnson 5.69
Curt Schilling 5.41
Edgar Martinez 5.38
Mark McGwire 5.36
Mike Mussina 5.26
Mike Piazza 5.03
Nomar Garciaparra 4.99
Alan Trammell 4.97
Tim Raines 4.47
Brian Giles 4.46
Sammy Sosa 4.02
John Smoltz 3.93
Jeff Kent 3.89
Don Mattingly 3.83
Gary Sheffield 3.79
Craig Biggio 3.70
Carlos Delgado 3.53
Fred McGriff 3.45
Darin Erstad 3.16
Jason Schmidt 3.16
Cliff Floyd 2.59
Tom Gordon 2.20
Lee Smith 1.96
Aaron Boone 1.90
Jermaine Dye 1.87
Rich Aurilia 1.77
Troy Percival 1.69
Tony Clark 1.30
Eddie Guardado 1.00

Stats from Lahman’s Baseball Database and Baseball-Reference.com.

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Average WAR for 2014 Hall of Fame Candidates

January 1, 2014 by TheUmpire

Todd Jones

Mike Mussina leads the pack of first-year candidates.

Todd Jones looks to be this year’s Lenny Harris.

We have converted a baseball player’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) into a rate statistic which indicates the average number of wins above replacement a player would give his team per single season (avgWAR). Baseball-Reference.com uses the following scale for WAR values:

  • 8+ MVP Quality
  • 5+ All-Star Quality
  • 2+ Starter
  • 0-2 Reserve
  • <0 Replacement Level

It is our proposal that players having an avgWAR of 5.0 or higher are worthy of induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Player avgWAR
Barry Bonds 8.82
Roger Clemens 6.74
Jeff Bagwell 5.99
Larry Walker 5.92
Curt Schilling 5.41
Edgar Martinez 5.38
Mark McGwire 5.36
Mike Mussina 5.26
Frank Thomas 5.13
Mike Piazza 5.02
Alan Trammell 4.97
Greg Maddux 4.89
Tim Raines 4.47
Rafael Palmeiro 4.11
Tom Glavine 4.06
Sammy Sosa 4.02
Jeff Kent 3.89
Don Mattingly 3.83
Craig Biggio 3.69
Fred McGriff 3.46
Moises Alou 3.31
Luis Gonzalez 3.22
Kenny Rogers 2.83
Jack Morris 2.79
Ray Durham 2.76
Paul Lo Duca 2.68
Hideo Nomo 2.24
Richie Sexson 2.12
Lee Smith 1.96
Sean Casey 1.88
Eric Gagne 1.80
Armando Benitez 1.58
Jacque Jones 1.43
Mike Timlin 1.25
J.T. Snow 1.04
Todd Jones 0.75

Stats from Lahman’s Baseball Database and Baseball-Reference.com.

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Average WAR for 2013 Hall of Fame Candidates

December 6, 2012 by TheUmpire

Barry Bonds Led by Barry Bonds, this year’s ballot features five avgWAR 5+ players.  Sammy Sosa ain’t one of ‘em, despite his 609 career home runs.

Jeff Bagwell leads the pack of first-year candidates.

José Mesa looks to be this year’s Lenny Harris.

We have converted a baseball player’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) into a rate statistic which indicates the average number of wins above replacement a player would give his team per single season (avgWAR).

Baseball-Reference.com uses the following scale for WAR values:

  • 8+ MVP Quality
  • 5+ All-Star Quality
  • 2+ Starter
  • 0-2 Reserve
  • <0 Replacement Level

It is our proposal that players having an avgWAR of 5.0 or higher are worthy of induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Player avgWAR
Barry Bonds 8.58
Roger Clemens 6.43
Jeff Bagwell 5.78
Larry Walker 5.68
Curt Schilling 5.15
Edgar Martinez 5.07
Mark McGwire 5.07
Kenny Lofton 5.00
Mike Piazza 4.75
Alan Trammell 4.74
Tim Raines 4.29
Rafael Palmeiro 3.78
Sammy Sosa 3.77
Don Mattingly 3.61
Bernie Williams 3.58
Craig Biggio 3.53
Reggie Sanders 3.35
Jeff Cirillo 3.21
Fred McGriff 3.17
Dale Murphy 3.16
David Wells 2.91
Rondell White 2.80
Shawn Green 2.61
Julio Franco 2.54
Steve Finley 2.53
Woody Williams 2.53
Jack Morris 2.48
Ryan Klesko 2.29
Lee Smith 1.83
Aaron Sele 1.57
Sandy Alomar 1.36
Jeff Conine 1.30
Royce Clayton 1.26
Roberto Hernandez 1.15
Todd Walker 1.04
Mike Stanton 0.77
José Mesa 0.58

Stats from Lahman’s Baseball Database and Baseball-Reference.com.

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2013 Pre-Integration Era Ballot – avgWAR vs Auditioning for Cooperstown

November 17, 2012 by TheUmpire

Bill Dahlen In our last post, we introduced Andre Lower’s new book, "Auditioning for Cooperstown:  Rating Baseball’s Stars for the Hall of Fame."

Today we compare Lower’s rating system with Baseball Ink’s avgWAR scores for the six players on the 2013 Pre-Integration Era ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame:

Lower writes:

Bill Dahlen ranks 49th all-time among hitters, including 38th in career production. He definitely belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Wes Ferrell ranks 44th all-time among starting pitchers, including 26th in peak seasons production. He absolutely belongs in Cooperstown.

Marty Marion ranks 436th all-time among hitters in Hall of Fame points. Only three hitters in the Hall of Fame, none remotely deserving, rank below him. Ranking just under Del Crandall and Gene Woodling, Marion does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

Tony Mullane ranks 57th all-time among starting pitchers in Hall of Fame points. For that and being the greatest pitcher in American Association (as a major league) history, he is certainly a Hall of Famer.

Bucky Walters ranks 35th all-time among starting pitchers, his point totals including his hitting career prior to his conversion to pitching. He ranks 16th in peak seasons production among starting pitchers, a testament to his great 1939, 1940 and 1944 seasons. He surely belongs in Cooperstown.

Deacon White ranks 34th all-time among hitters, including 27th in career production and 18th in peak seasons production thanks to the schedule adjustment made to level the playing field between 19th Century players who played in short seasons and those playing in longer seasons. White absolutely is a Hall of Famer.

The Baseball Ink avgWAR scores:

Players with 8+ seasons Career Batting Career Pitching
Rank Player avgWAR Career WAR G Seasons G GS Seasons NB HoF
55 Wes Ferrell 5.58 57.2 548 3.38 374 323 10.25 N
125 Bill Dahlen 4.70 70.9 2444 15.09 0 0 0.00 N
153 Deacon White 4.57 44.0 1560 9.63 2 0 0.03 N
207 Bucky Walters 4.28 52.0 715 4.41 428 398 12.15 N
275 Tony Mullane 3.95 61.5 784 4.84 555 504 15.57 N
542 Marty Marion 3.05 29.6 1572 9.70 0 0 0.00 N

(WAR scale:  8+ MVP, 5+ All-Star, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Substitute, < 0 Replacement)

Typically, we here at Baseball Ink consider an avgWAR value of 5 (+/- .5) as a cutoff point.  Ferrell is definitely worthy; Dahlen, White, Walters are arguably worthy; Mullane and Marion not.

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