The Junior/Ichiro Challenge

A couple of days ago, Ken Griffey, Jr. challenged Ichiro to accomplish what no-one has even come close to – a whopping 300 hits.

“You better get 300 hits this year,” Griffey said, mocking feign anger. “I want 300 hits or I’m going to knock you out.”

Suzuki, who set a major-league record with his nine consecutive 200-hit season last year, looked at him and laughed. “I need one more month for 300,” Suzuki said.

Griffey: “No, you can do it. You get 250 hits a year already, so what’s 50 more?”

What’s 50 more?

Well, it’s a helluva lot.

In nine seasons in the majors, Ichiro has had some monster accomplishments.  His career batting average is .333 and has had 9 straight seasons of over 200 hits, with a career high and major league record of 262 when he hit a career high .372 at the age of 30.

In addition to being the MLB hit leader, he usually is the leader in plate appearances and at-bats.

And in nine seasons, he’s only had one season (last year) when he didn’t play in almost every single game, when he played in a career low 146 games and still managed to get an incredible 225 hits.

So, if anyone can get to 300 it would be Ichiro.  Right?

What’s 50 more?

First off, he will have to stay healthy.  He’s a peak condition guy, so let’s call last year an anomaly and assume he will play in 162 games.

Secondly, he will still have to get the same number of at-bats that he usually does.  Which is close to 700.  Since he hits leadoff and that’s not going to change and he doesn’t really walk much, that’s a pretty good assumption.  His career high in ABs is 704.

Thirdly, he will have to get approximately 8 more hits a month.  That doesn’t sound too hard, does it?  He will have to be incredibly lucky as well.

Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week – just one – a gorp… you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes… you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium. – Crash Davis in Bull Durham.

What’s 50 more?

He’d only have to hit .429!