Stephen Strasburg – Phenom

I’ve been meaning to write this article for a while now – ever since the Washington Nationals drafted him and then again when they finally signed him and once more when Spring sprung.

In a recent World Wide Leader in Sports ESPN article giving us fantasy baseball hints, Steven Strasburg was number two on the list of players we should consider as a fantasy prospect for 2010.

2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
Will he start the 2010 season in the majors? That’s the big question. There’s no doubt he’s one of the Nats’ five best starting pitchers right now, but is there a reason to push him when he could instead get his feet wet in the minors? Last fall, the word was that Strasburg would start the season in the minors no matter how well he pitched in the spring. Then, at the end of January, Nats GM Mike Rizzo said Strasburg would make the club if he had a great spring. In the first week of March, manager Jim Riggleman hinted that the first overall pick would be in the minors regardless of how well he did, then backtracked a little and didn’t rule out his starting the year in the majors. Rizzo then intimated basically the same thing. What are fantasy owners to believe?

Strasburg’s stuff is big-league-ready and will help him overcome the occasional command and control issues that are likely to crop up when he faces major league hitters for the first time. For all the hype about his fastball and breaking ball, one of the more intriguing things about Strasburg is that he has a “plus” changeup that was in his back pocket in college because he never needed it. That gives him three pitches in his arsenal that can make batters look foolish.

My guess is that Strasburg will do a little “affiliate tour” in 2010, starting at Class A ball, and build up a few starts before making his big league debut in early June. That’s what we have based our projection for him on. Treat anything else as a bonus. It’s possible that Strasburg could be a top-50 fantasy starter, even if he doesn’t open the season in the big leagues. After all, Tommy Hanson was a top-30 starter last year despite missing the first two months. Either way, Strasburg should be successful almost immediately thanks to his superior stuff.

Let’s just do a little history lesson.  Here are all the “can’t miss” number one draft pick pitchers of the past 44 years:

Table is derived from Wikipedia; the asterisk denotes that the player made at least one All-Star team.  Brien Taylor never even made it to the majors.  They’re not exactly household names are they?

Just a bit of advice here for you fantasy baseball owners and fans of the Nats (both of us): Before you believe all the hype, let’s let Stephen throw a few pitches against real live hitting in the major leagues in a real game.

And right now, based on history, I’d tell you to not waste the pick.